Oscar Predictions: What Should Win and What Was Missed

LOS ANGELES — Here's a little confession: every year, I end up losing my Oscar ballot that I use for fun. As a critic, I end up voting for my favorites while also pushing for films that I believe deserved some recognition but were overlooked instead. This Sunday is the big day, and I will be cheering on these nominees, while also making it a point to catch up on some of those films that didn't get the spotlight they deserved once the awards wrap up.

The 97th Academy Awards are set to take place on March 2 at the Dolby Theatre in Ovation Hollywood, starting at 6 p.m. CT. This year's event will be hosted by Conan O’Brien and will be available to watch live on ABC as well as on Hulu for online streaming. In past years, those without cable would have had to subscribe to services like Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, or FuboTV to watch the ceremony.

Best Picture Contenders

The nominations this year include:
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”

What Should Win: “Dune: Part Two.” After the success of the first part last year which garnered numerous awards, it was surprising to see this sequel receive only four nominations—best picture and three technical awards. “Part Two” is truly deserving, featuring exceptional direction and storytelling that incorporates relevant themes of female empowerment and survival. Timothée Chalamet gives a remarkable performance, making the film a solid contender that will likely stand the test of time.

What Should Have Contended: “Better Man.” Despite the Academy expanding its international jury, they missed the mark with this vibrant pop musical about Robbie Williams. More imagination and energy are captured here than in many conventional biopics. It deserves a viewing for anyone who appreciates the vitality of live performance in cinema.

Directing Nominations

Nominees include:
Sean Baker for “Anora”
Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist”
James Mangold for “A Complete Unknown”
Jacques Audiard for “Emilia Pérez”
Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance”

What Should Win: Sean Baker for “Anora.” Baker has a knack for portraying unconventional narratives and subcultures in a captivating manner. This film presents a humorous yet intense narrative about a stripper and her upper-crust in-laws, making it deserving of a directing award.

What Should Have Contended: Molly Manning Walker for “How to Have Sex.” In this innovative dramedy set in Crete, Manning Walker crafts a story about young adults struggling with identity and fun, making a strong case for recognition in directing.

Lead Actress Nominees

Cynthia Erivo for “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón for “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison for “Anora”
Demi Moore for “The Substance”
Fernanda Torres for “I’m Still Here”

What Should Win: Demi Moore for “The Substance.” Moore delivers an intense performance in this film that explores the extremes of beauty in Hollywood.

What Should Have Contended: Andra Day for “The Deliverance.” Day's role showcases her talent in a gripping horror narrative, and her performance certainly merits consideration.

Lead Actor Nominees

Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet for “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo for “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes for “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan for “The Apprentice”

What Should Win: Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist.” Brody’s return to the spotlight in a thoughtful film about an architect is commendable.

What Should Have Contended: Cillian Murphy for “Small Things Like These.” Murphy’s portrayal of a coal seller in Ireland underpins the moral dilemmas faced by individuals in dire times, showcasing his range as an actor.

Supporting Actress Nominees

Monica Barbaro for “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande for “Wicked”
Felicity Jones for “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini for “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña for “Emilia Pérez”

What Should Win: Zoe Saldaña for “Emilia Pérez.” Saldaña shines as a lawyer in this film, showing growth and emotional depth that deserves recognition.

What Should Have Contended: Aubrey Plaza for “Megalopolis.” Plaza’s performance stood out amidst a chaotic production, where her character shaped the film's tone with her unique flair.

Supporting Actor Nominees

Yura Borisov for “Anora”
Kieran Culkin for “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton for “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce for “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong for “The Apprentice”

What Should Win: Kieran Culkin for “A Real Pain.” His portrayal of a brash character is memorable and compelling.

What Should Have Contended: Harris Dickinson for “Babygirl.” Dickinson’s nuanced performance deserves more attention compared to the more famous co-stars.

Screenplay Nominations

Adapted Screenplay nominees:
James Mangold and Jay Cocks for “A Complete Unknown”
Peter Straughan for “Conclave”
Jacques Audiard for “Emilia Pérez”
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes for “Nickel Boys”
Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley for “Sing Sing”

What Should Win: “Nickel Boys.” The adaptation engages the audience by blending novel elements into a compelling screenplay.

What Should Have Contended: Vera Drew for “The People’s Joker.” This film taps into the whimsical side of storytelling, deserving of recognition for its uniqueness.

Animated Feature Nominations

Nominees include:
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”

What Should Win: “Flow.” This film captures an adventure of teamwork in a simplistic yet profound way through visual storytelling.

What Should Have Contended: “Transformers One.” This prequel surprisingly connects with audiences through its heartfelt narrative, deserving a spot.

Documentary Feature Nominations

Docs include:
“Black Box Diaries”
“No Other Land”
“Porcelain War”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”

What Should Win: “No Other Land.” This documentary provides a crucial look into a forgotten conflict that doesn’t get enough screening.

What Should Have Contended: “Daughters.” This heartfelt film about family connection drops an emotional punch that deserves greater acknowledgment.

International Feature Nominations

International contenders:
“Emilia Pérez”
“Flow”
“The Girl With the Needle”
“I’m Still Here”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”

What Should Win: “I’m Still Here.” Its exploring themes of political evolution in Brazil resonates deeply in today’s climate.

What Should Have Contended: “Universal Language.” The comedic element in this narrative highlights societal issues that deserve more attention.

Oscars, Film, Awards, Predictions